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dc.contributor.author Jones, Tony
dc.contributor.author Pilling, C. G.
dc.date.accessioned 2008-12-16T09:07:22Z
dc.date.available 2008-12-16T09:07:22Z
dc.date.issued 2002-04-30
dc.identifier.citation Jones , T & Pilling , C G 2002 , ' The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, mid-Wales ' Hydrological Processes , vol 16 , no. 6 , pp. 1201-1213 . , 10.1002/hyp.1057 en
dc.identifier.issn 1099-1085
dc.identifier.other PURE: 96076
dc.identifier.other dspace: 2160/1669
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2160/1669
dc.description Jones, Tony, Pilling, C.G., (2002) 'The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, mid-Wales', Hydrological Processes 16(6) pp.1201-1213 RAE2008 Special Issue: Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes en
dc.description.abstract Analysing the impact of future climate change on hydrological regimes is hampered by the disparity of scales between general circulation model (GCM) output and the spatial resolution required by catchment-scale hydrological simulation models. In order to overcome this, statistical relationships were established between three indices of atmospheric circulation (vorticity and the strength and direction of geostrophic windflow) and daily catchment precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to downscale from the HadCM2 GCM to the Upper Wye experimental catchment in mid-Wales. The atmospheric circulation indices were calculated from daily grid point sea-level pressure data for: (a) the Climatic Research Unit observed data set (1975-90); (b) the HadCM2SUL simulation representing the present climate (1980-99); and (c) the HadCM2SUL simulation representing future climate conditions (2080-99). The performance of the downscaling approach was evaluated by comparing diagnostic statistics from the three downscaled precipitation and PET scenarios with those recorded from the Upper Wye catchment. The most significant changes between the downscaled HadCM2SUL 1980-99 and 2080-99 scenarios are decreases in precipitation occurrence and amount in summer and autumn combined with a shortening of mean wet spell length, which is most pronounced in autumn. A hydrological simulation model (HYSIM) was calibrated on recorded flow data for the Upper Wye catchment and forced with the three downscaled precipitation and PET scenarios to model changes in river flow and hillslope hydrological processes. Results indicate increased seasonality of flows, with markedly drier summers. Analysis of extreme events suggests significant increases in the frequency of both high- and low-flow events. en
dc.format.extent 13 en
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Hydrological Processes en
dc.subject climate change en
dc.subject downscaling en
dc.subject runoff en
dc.subject hydrological processes en
dc.subject Hadley Centre GCM en
dc.subject Wales en
dc.title The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, mid-Wales en
dc.type Text en
dc.type.publicationtype Special issue (Journal) en
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1057
dc.contributor.institution Aberystwyth University en
dc.contributor.institution River Basin Dynamics and Hydrology en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en


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