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dc.contributor.author Tony en_US
dc.contributor.author C. G. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2008-12-16T09:07:22Z
dc.date.available 2008-12-16T09:07:22Z
dc.date.issued 2002-04-30 en_US
dc.identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1057 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Jones , T & Pilling , C G 2002 , ' The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, mid-Wales ' Hydrological Processes , vol 16 , no. 6 , pp. 1201-1213 . , 10.1002/hyp.1057 en_US
dc.identifier.other PURE: 96076 en_US
dc.identifier.other dspace: 2160/1669 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2160/1669
dc.description.abstract Analysing the impact of future climate change on hydrological regimes is hampered by the disparity of scales between general circulation model (GCM) output and the spatial resolution required by catchment-scale hydrological simulation models. In order to overcome this, statistical relationships were established between three indices of atmospheric circulation (vorticity and the strength and direction of geostrophic windflow) and daily catchment precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to downscale from the HadCM2 GCM to the Upper Wye experimental catchment in mid-Wales. The atmospheric circulation indices were calculated from daily grid point sea-level pressure data for: (a) the Climatic Research Unit observed data set (1975-90); (b) the HadCM2SUL simulation representing the present climate (1980-99); and (c) the HadCM2SUL simulation representing future climate conditions (2080-99). The performance of the downscaling approach was evaluated by comparing diagnostic statistics from the three downscaled precipitation and PET scenarios with those recorded from the Upper Wye catchment. The most significant changes between the downscaled HadCM2SUL 1980-99 and 2080-99 scenarios are decreases in precipitation occurrence and amount in summer and autumn combined with a shortening of mean wet spell length, which is most pronounced in autumn. A hydrological simulation model (HYSIM) was calibrated on recorded flow data for the Upper Wye catchment and forced with the three downscaled precipitation and PET scenarios to model changes in river flow and hillslope hydrological processes. Results indicate increased seasonality of flows, with markedly drier summers. Analysis of extreme events suggests significant increases in the frequency of both high- and low-flow events. en_US
dc.format.extent 13 en_US
dc.relation.ispartof Hydrological Processes en_US
dc.subject climate change en_US
dc.subject downscaling en_US
dc.subject runoff en_US
dc.subject hydrological processes en_US
dc.subject Hadley Centre GCM en_US
dc.subject Wales en_US
dc.title The impact of future climate change on seasonal discharge, hydrological processes and extreme flows in the Upper Wye experimental catchment, mid-Wales en_US
dc.contributor.pbl Aberystwyth University en_US
dc.contributor.pbl River Basin Dynamics and Hydrology en_US


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