Explaining the ‘quiet earthquake’: voting behaviour in the first election to the National Assembly for Wales

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dc.contributor.author Scully, Roger
dc.contributor.author Wyn Jones, Richard
dc.contributor.author Trystan, Dafydd
dc.date.accessioned 2009-01-16T10:48:19Z
dc.date.available 2009-01-16T10:48:19Z
dc.date.issued 2003-12
dc.identifier.citation Scully , R , Wyn Jones , R & Trystan , D 2003 , ' Explaining the ‘quiet earthquake’: voting behaviour in the first election to the National Assembly for Wales ' Electoral Studies , vol 22 , no. 4 , pp. 635-650 . , 10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00028-8 en
dc.identifier.other PURE: 98485
dc.identifier.other dspace: 2160/1845
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2160/1845
dc.identifier.uri http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V9P-47HS7CW-1&_user=427455&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000020498&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=427455&md5=f2ed2f924c26b9a3c2107ede4ddc3feb en
dc.description Scully, R., Wyn Jones, R., Trystan, D. (2003) Explaining the ‘quiet earthquake’: voting behaviour in the first election to the National Assembly for Wales. Electoral Studies, 22, 4, pp.635-650 en
dc.description.abstract This paper examines voting behaviour in the inaugural election to the National Assembly for Wales (NAW), held in May 1999. We address two questions: (i) why did the election produce a ‘quiet earthquake’ in Welsh electoral politics, with the nationalist Plaid Cymru denying the Labour party their expected majority in the Assembly?; and (ii) what broader lessons does this case-study offer for the study of elections in the UK under devolution? Drawing on data from the Welsh National Assembly Election Study, we find that while some features of second-order election theories, such as lower turnout and a lower vote share for the governing party were manifest, contrary to the predictions of such theories the surge in electoral support for Plaid was largely prompted by Welsh-specific factors rather than UK-wide ones. The findings are argued to indicate limits to the applicability of second-order approaches to the study of devolved elections in the UK. en
dc.format.extent 16 en
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Electoral Studies en
dc.title Explaining the ‘quiet earthquake’: voting behaviour in the first election to the National Assembly for Wales en
dc.type Text en
dc.type.publicationtype Article (Journal) en
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00028-8
dc.contributor.institution Department of International Politics en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en


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