Risk assessment of serious crime with fuzzy random theory

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dc.contributor.author Shen, Qiang
dc.contributor.author Zhao, Ruiqing
dc.date.accessioned 2010-09-06T07:43:24Z
dc.date.available 2010-09-06T07:43:24Z
dc.date.issued 2010-11-15
dc.identifier.citation Shen , Q & Zhao , R 2010 , ' Risk assessment of serious crime with fuzzy random theory ' Information Sciences , vol 180 , no. 22 , pp. 4401-4411 . en
dc.identifier.other PURE: 150477
dc.identifier.other dspace: 2160/5313
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2160/5313
dc.description Q. Shen and R. Zhao. Risk assessment of serious crime with fuzzy random theory. Information Sciences, 180(22):4401-4411, 2010. Sponsorship: EPSRC en
dc.description.abstract This paper presents a novel approach for assessing the potential risk of serious crime events (e.g. terrorist attack). The modelling and assessment of such risk is carried out under uncertain circumstances because of both the randomness and fuzziness inherent in crime data. The approach is based on fuzzy random theory that complements probability theory, with an additional dimension of imprecision. This allows for potential loss caused by a crime to be expressed as a fuzzy random variable. Crime risk is therefore estimated as the mean chance of a fuzzy random event, where the resulting loss reaches a given confidence level. The concept of the average loss per unit of time is also introduced, in order to calculate the rate at which the loss may increase due to possible crime events. The work is compared with typical existing approaches and supported with examples throughout that illustrate its utility. en
dc.format.extent 11 en
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Information Sciences en
dc.title Risk assessment of serious crime with fuzzy random theory en
dc.type Text en
dc.type.publicationtype Article (Journal) en
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2010.07.027
dc.contributor.institution Department of Computer Science en
dc.contributor.institution Advanced Reasoning Group en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en


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