End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation

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dc.contributor.author McMillan, Hilary K.
dc.contributor.author Brasington, James
dc.date.accessioned 2011-01-10T09:05:09Z
dc.date.available 2011-01-10T09:05:09Z
dc.date.issued 2008-03-18
dc.identifier.citation McMillan , H K & Brasington , J 2008 , ' End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation ' Water Resources Research . en
dc.identifier.issn 1944-7973
dc.identifier.other PURE: 156747
dc.identifier.other dspace: 2160/6070
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2160/6070
dc.description McMillan, H. K., Brasington, J. (2008). End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation. Water Resources Research, 44(3): W03419. en
dc.description.abstract This paper presents the case for an ‘End-to-End’ flood inundation modeling strategy: the creation of a coupled system of models to allow continuous simulation methodology to be used to predict the magnitude and simulate the effects of high return period flood events. The framework brings together the best in current thinking on reduced complexity modeling to formulate an efficient, process-based methodology which meets the needs of today's flood mitigation strategies. The model chain is subject to stochasticity and parameter uncertainty, and integral methods to allow the propagation and quantification of uncertainty are essential in order to produce robust estimates of flood risk. Results from an experimental application are considered in terms of their implications for successful floodplain management, and compared against the deterministic methodology more commonly in use for flood risk assessment applications. The provenance of predictive uncertainty is also considered in order to identify those areas where future effort in terms of data collection or model refinement might best be directed in order to narrow prediction bounds and produce a more precise forecast. en
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Water Resources Research en
dc.title End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation en
dc.type Text en
dc.type.publicationtype Article (Journal) en
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007WR005995
dc.contributor.institution Institute of Geography & Earth Sciences en
dc.contributor.institution River Basin Dynamics and Hydrology en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en


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