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dc.contributor.author Valencia, Bryan G.
dc.contributor.author Matthews-Bird, Frazer
dc.contributor.author Urrego, Dunia H.
dc.contributor.author Williams, Joseph
dc.contributor.author Gosling, William D.
dc.contributor.author Bush, Mark
dc.date.accessioned 2016-10-19T14:27:15Z
dc.date.available 2016-10-19T14:27:15Z
dc.date.issued 2016-10-01
dc.identifier.citation Valencia , B G , Matthews-Bird , F , Urrego , D H , Williams , J , Gosling , W D & Bush , M 2016 , ' Andean microrefugia : Testing the Holocene to predict the Anthropocene ' New Phytologist , vol. 212 , no. 2 , pp. 510-22 . https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14042 en
dc.identifier.issn 0028-646X
dc.identifier.other PURE: 9241644
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: c9ed7a0a-3805-4eab-8a01-8ab14a4bd2a8
dc.identifier.other PubMed: 27374975
dc.identifier.other Scopus: 85027933637
dc.identifier.other handle.net: 2160/43905
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2160/43905
dc.description This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.14042 en
dc.description.abstract Microrefugia are important for supporting populations during periods of unfavourable climate change and in facilitating rapid migration as conditions ameliorate. With ongoing anthropogenic climate change, microrefugia could have an important conservation value; however, a simple tool has not been developed and tested to predict which settings are microrefugial. We provide a tool based on terrain ruggedness modelling of individual catchments to predict Andean microrefugia. We tested the predictions using nine Holocene Polylepis pollen records. We used the mid-Holocene dry event, a period of peak aridity for the last 100 000 yr, as an analogue climate scenario for the near future. The results suggest that sites with high terrain rugosity have the greatest chance of sustaining mesic conditions under drier-than-modern climates. Fire is a feature of all catchments; however, an increase in fire is only recorded in settings with low rugosity. Owing to rising temperatures and greater precipitation variability, Andean ecosystems are threatened by increasing moisture stress. Our results suggest that high terrain rugosity helps to create more resilient catchments by trapping moisture through orographic rainfall and providing firebreaks that shelter forest from fire. On this basis, conservation policy should target protection and management of catchments with high terrain rugosity. en
dc.format.extent 13 en
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof New Phytologist en
dc.rights en
dc.subject Andes en
dc.subject climate change en
dc.subject conservation en
dc.subject fire en
dc.subject microrefugia en
dc.subject palaeoecology en
dc.subject Polylepis en
dc.subject rugosity en
dc.title Andean microrefugia : Testing the Holocene to predict the Anthropocene en
dc.type /dk/atira/pure/researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/contributiontojournal/article en
dc.description.version authorsversion en
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14042
dc.contributor.institution Department of Geography and Earth Sciences en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.date.embargoedUntil 04-07-20


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